Projekt

Compound events are major extreme events that result from the joint occurrence of underlying contributing events. Typical examples are drought in conjunction with a heatwave, and a storm surge coinciding with heavy precipitation causing river flooding. In order to fully describe the dependence structure and to correctly assess their severity, multivariate statistical models are required. Furthermore, the inclusion of physical predictors is necessary to gain insight into the temporal variability and their dependence structure. So far, no multivariate statistical models including predictors to describe compound events have been formulated. This project aims at such a multivariate statistical model with predictors based on pair copula constructions. The model is developed for a wide class of compound events. In particular, the model will be applied to the drought and flood examples mentioned above. To this end the team plans to analyse the severity, variability and underlying physical mechanisms of compound events in the observational record. The representation of such events by dynamically downscaled global climate models can give hints on potential future changes.

• Prof. Dr. Douglas Maraun

  Universität Graz
  Wegener Center für Klima und Globalen Wandel
  Graz
  Österreich
  

• Dr. Mathieu Vrac

  CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche
  Scientifique
  Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et
  de l'Environnement
  Centre d'Etude de Saclay
  Gif-sur-Yvette
  Frankreich
  

• Dr. Martin Widmann

  University of Birmingham
  School of Geography, Earth and Environmental
  Sciences
  Birmingham
  Grossbritannien
  

• Multivariate statistical modelling of compound events via pair-copula constructions: analysis of fl oods in Ravenna (Italy)

• Soil Moisture Drought in Europe: A Compound Event of Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration on Multiple Time Scales