Projekt

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The planetary boundaries framework has been introduced to define a safe operating space for humanity given the multitude of anthropogenic pressures on vital components of the Earth system. Despite their substantial importance for national and international policy processes on sustainable development, Earth's planetary boundaries remain only poorly defined and quantified, mainly due to non-linear feedbacks in the Earth system and non-trivial interactions between different Earthsystem components. Fundamental scientific progress along these lines is urgently needed and requires a novel and integrative Earth-system modelling approach based on fast, modular coupled models including an advanced representation of the terrestrial biosphere. The focus of this project is to make the prototype of the Potsdam Earth Model (POEM) operational as a planetary boundary simulator (POEM-PBSim) and perform a first quantification of key planetary boundaries. Using this model configuration, the expertise of the PIK will be integrated to explore three science questions selected because they represent key aspects of the planetary boundary agenda, illustrate the importance of interactions between different components of the Earth system and make use of key strengths of POEM-PBSim in terms of its advanced terrestrial biosphere model and the representation of Earth-system feedbacks. The Earth system components studied (forests, ocean circulation and marine biosphere) are not treated as mere components of the climate system, but as defining dimensions of a "safe operating space for humanity" that may inform the agendas on sustainable development. This pilot project will thus not only provide an operational model system for Earth's interacting planetary boundaries, but also yield next-phase scientific insights on selected planetary boundaries and their interactions.

• Dr. Georg Feulner

  Potsdam-Institut für
  Klimafolgenforschung e. V.
  Forschungsbereich 1 - Erdsystemanalyse
  Potsdam
  

• Priv.-Doz. Dr. Dieter Gerten

  Potsdam-Institut für
  Klimafolgenforschung e. V.
  Forschungsbereich I: Erdsystemanalyse
  Potsdam
  

• Dr. Matthias Hofmann

  Potsdam-Institut für
  Klimafolgenforschung e. V.
  Fachbereich Erdsystemanalyse
  Potsdam
  

• Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Lucht

  Potsdam-Institut für
  Klimafolgenforschung e. V.
  Fachbereich Erdsystemanalyse
  Potsdam
  

• Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf

  Potsdam-Institut für
  Klimafolgenforschung e. V.
  Fachbereich Erdsystemanalyse
  Potsdam
  

• Dr. Kirsten Thonicke

  Potsdam-Institut für
  Klimafolgenforschung e. V.
  Fachbereich Erdsystemanalyse
  Potsdam
  

• CM2Mc-LPJmL v1.0: biophysical coupling of a process-based dynamic vegetation model with managed land to a general circulation model

• Climate-induced hysteresis of the tropical forest in a fire-enabled Earth system model

• Physically constrained generative adversarial networks for improving precipitation fields from Earth system models