Projekt

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Mesoscale weather systems, such as convective cells or severe fronts, are responsible for numerous hazardous weather events that are caused by heavy rainfall and/or extreme winds. The physical understanding, modeling and prediction of their characteristics lie at the heart of this interdisciplinary project, in which atmospheric and mathematical scientists join forces with the German Weather Service. The project seeks an improved understanding of energy cascades and physical constraints for the spatial structure of mesoscale extremes. An ensemble copula coupling approach for physically consistent probabilistic forecasts across space, time and weather variables is developed as well as design verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of extreme events. Novel probabilistic models for spatial fields of extremes, as well as methodology and algorithms for conditional simulation are introduced. As an overarching theme, the project contributes to the development of a next-generation mesoscale probabilistic forecast system for extreme weather.

• Priv.-Doz. Dr. Petra Friederichs

  Universität Bonn
  Meteorologisches Institut und Interdisziplinäres
  Zentrum für Komplexe Systeme
  Bonn
  

• Prof. Dr. Andreas Hense

  Universität Bonn
  Meteorologisches Institut
  und Interdisziplinäres Zentrum
  für Komplexe Systeme
  Bonn
  

• Prof. Dr. Tilmann Gneiting

  HITS Heidelberger Institut für
  Theoretische Studien
  Computational Statistics Group
  Heidelberg
  

• Dr. Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir

  Universität Heidelberg
  Fakultät für Mathematik und Informatik
  Institut für Angewandte Mathematik
  Heidelberg
  

• Prof. Dr. Martin Schlather

  Universität Mannheim
  Institut für Mathematik
  Mannheim